Reel Dialogue’s predictions for the 2019 Academy Awards

The Academy Award nominations are in and Reel Dialogue has weighed in and provided our predictions and preferences. 

We have included some of the details that may make the awards more accessible for audience members and proving that there is a system to the how the awards are chosen.

Hope this all helps you during this award season and we would love to hear about your favourite films of the year. Did the Academy get it right? What films would you have included on the list? 

When are the Oscars?

The 91st Academy awards take place on 24 February 2019 at the Dolby Theatre in Los Angeles.

Who decides on the Oscars?

The Oscars are voted for by members of the Academy of Motion Pictures Arts and Sciences (aka Ampas), which currently numbers just under 8,000 voting members, divided into 17 separate branches, including actors, directors, costume designers, etc. (To join, names have to be proposed and approved by individual branches.) The Academy has received considerable criticism in recent years for the perceived white/male/elderly bias of its voters – and a drive to create a more diverse membership was instituted after the #OscarsSoWhite campaign in 2016.

How many Oscars are there and how does a film get nominated?

There are 24 categories – ranging from best picture to best sound mixing – presented on Oscar night. Each of the main awards has its own rules and regulations for slimming down all the eligible entries – first to a long list, then a shortlist, then the final nomination list. In most categories, to be eligible a film must have been released for seven days in Los Angeles before 31 December, and a specialist committee makes the selection for the nomination – which is then voted on by the full membership. For the best foreign language film award, each country can submit one film (89 were put forward this year), before a committee boils them down to a final five.

What do Oscar winners win?

The Oscar statuette isn’t solid gold: it’s gold-plated bronze on a black metal base. It is 34 cm tall and weighs 3.8 kg. While the Academy doesn’t own it once it is handed over, its acceptance is conditional that recipients won’t sell them unless they have offered them back to the Academy for $1.*

 Here we go… the nominations, predictions and preferences for 2019

Best picture

The Favourite

Green Book

Vice

Roma

Black Panther

BlacKkKlansman

Bohemian Rhapsody

A Star Is Born

Oscar predictions: Bohemian Rhapsody
Reel Dialogue’s preference: Green Book

 

Best director

Alfonso Cuarón (Roma) 

Adam McKay (Vice)

Yorgos Lanthimos (The Favourite)

Spike Lee (BlacKkKlansman) 

Pawel Pawlikowski (Cold War)

Oscar predictions: Alfonso Cuarón (Roma)
Reel Dialogue’s preference: Alfonso Cuarón (Roma)

 

Best actor

Rami Malek (Bohemian Rhapsody) 

Christian Bale (Vice)

Viggo Mortensen (Green Book) 

Bradley Cooper (A Star Is Born)

Willem Dafoe (At Eternity’s Gate)

Oscar predictions: Christian Bale (Vice)
Reel Dialogue’s preference: Willem Dafoe (At Eternity’s Gate)

 

Best actress

Glenn Close (The Wife) 

Lady Gaga (A Star Is Born)

Olivia Colman (The Favourite) 

Melissa McCarthy (Can You Ever Forgive Me?)

Yalitza Aparicio (Roma)

Oscar predictions: Glenn Close (The Wife)
Reel Dialogue’s preference: Glenn Close (The Wife)
Best supporting actor

Mahershala Ali (Green Book)

Richard E Grant (Can You Ever Forgive Me?)

Sam Elliott (A Star Is Born) 

Adam Driver (BlacKkKlansman) 

Sam Rockwell (Vice)

Oscar predictions: Sam Elliott (A Star Is Born)
Reel Dialogue’s preference: Mahershala Ali (Green Book)

 

Best supporting actress

Emma Stone (The Favourite)

Rachel Weisz (The Favourite)

Amy Adams (Vice)

Regina King (If Beale Street Could Talk)

Marina De Tavira (Roma)

Oscar predictions: Marina De Tavira (Roma)
Reel Dialogue’s preference: Regina King (If Beale Street Could Talk)

 

Best adapted screenplay

If Beale Street Could Talk (Barry Jenkins) 

A Star Is Born (Bradley Cooper, Will Fetters and Eric Roth)

Can You Ever Forgive Me? (Nicole Holofcener and Jeff Whitty)

BlacKkKlansman (Spike Lee, David Rabinowitz, Charlie Wachtel and Kevin Willmott) 

The Ballad of Buster Scruggs (Joel Coen and Ethan Coen)

Oscar predictions: If Beale Street Could Talk (Barry Jenkins)
Reel Dialogue’s preference: A Star Is Born (Bradley Cooper, Will Fetters and Eric Roth)

 

Best original screenplay

Green Book (Brian Hayes Currie, Peter Farrelly and Nick Vallelonga)

The Favourite (Deborah Davis and Tony McNamara)

Roma (Alfonso Cuarón) 

Vice (Adam McKay)

First Reformed (Paul Schrader)

Oscar predictions: Green Book (Brian Hayes Currie, Peter Farrelly and Nick Vallelonga)
Reel Dialogue’s preference: Green Book (Brian Hayes Currie, Peter Farrelly and Nick Vallelonga)

 

Best animated feature

Incredibles 2 

Ralph Breaks the Internet 

Spider-Man: Into the Spider-Verse 

Isle of Dogs 

Mirai

Oscar predictions: Spider-Man: Into the Spider-Verse
Reel Dialogue’s preference: Spider-Man: Into the Spider-Verse

 

Best original score

If Beale Street Could Talk (Nicholas Britell)

Mary Poppins Returns (Marc Shaiman)

Isle of Dogs (Alexandre Desplat)

BlacKkKlansman (Terence Blanchard)

Black Panther (Ludwig Goransson)

Oscar predictions: Black Panther (Ludwig Goransson)
Reel Dialogue’s preference: Mary Poppins Returns (Marc Shaiman)

 

Best original song

Shallow (A Star Is Born)

All the Stars (Black Panther)

I’ll Fight (RBG)

The Place Where Lost Things Go (Mary Poppins Returns)

When a Cowboy Trades his Spurs for Wings (The Ballad of Buster Scruggs)

Oscar predictions: Shallow (A Star Is Born)
Reel Dialogue’s preference: Shallow (A Star Is Born)

Hope this all helps you during this award season and we would love to hear about your favourite films of the year.

Did the Academy get it right?

What films would you have included on the list?

 

*Academy Award details originally published in The Guardian, 23 January 2019

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Russell Matthews

Russell loves film and enjoys engaging in discussions about the latest cinema offerings and then connecting this with the Gospel. He has worked for City Bible Forum for over 10 years, is a reviewer for Insights Magazine and Entertainment Fuse and has a blog called Russelling Reviews. He moderates events for Reel Dialogue which connect the film industry with the general public.